The SoilCare project developed a set of future scenarios with the aim of identifying different pathways for European agriculture, from now until 2050, that will help to support the development of policies that are future-proof.  The scenario development process aimed to provide a contribution in the following ways:

  • develop scenarios capable of testing the effectiveness of proposed policies, and to be used in the design of policies
  • enable social learning and increase strategic capacity when considering policy alternatives and uncertain futures
  • increase the understanding of difficult futures to operate in, and find ways to take action now against these futures

An overview of the approach taken to developing these scenarios can be found here.  To date, the following 4 draft scenarios have been developed.

Four Scenarios


A description and a video providing details of each scenario can be found below.

Scenario 1: Local and sustainable (for those who can afford it) Description of Scenario 1  SoilCare Scenario1 cover slide
Scenario 2: Under pressure  Description of Scenario 2   SoilCare Scenario2 cover slide1
Scenario 3: Race to the bottom  Description of Scenario 3

  SoilCare Scenario3 cover slide

Scenario 4: Caring and sharing  Description of Scenario 4

  SoilCare Scenario4 cover slide3



The draft scenarios were presented at a Webinar on 23rd April 2020 where participants were asked to provide feedback on each scenario in order to develop them further. The Webinar presentations can be found here (Webinar introduction and Approach and Scenarios) and a recording of the Webinar here.