The SoilCare project developed a set of future scenarios with the aim of identifying different pathways for European agriculture, from now until 2050, that will help to support the development of policies that are future-proof. The scenario development process aimed to provide a contribution in the following ways:
- develop scenarios capable of testing the effectiveness of proposed policies, and to be used in the design of policies
- enable social learning and increase strategic capacity when considering policy alternatives and uncertain futures
- increase the understanding of difficult futures to operate in, and find ways to take action now against these futures
An overview of the approach taken to developing these scenarios can be found here. To date, the following 4 draft scenarios have been developed.
A description and a video providing details of each scenario can be found below.
Scenario 1: Local and sustainable (for those who can afford it) | Description of Scenario 1 | |
Scenario 2: Under pressure | Description of Scenario 2 | |
Scenario 3: Race to the bottom | Description of Scenario 3 | |
Scenario 4: Caring and sharing | Description of Scenario 4 |
|
The draft scenarios were presented at a Webinar on 23rd April 2020 where participants were asked to provide feedback on each scenario in order to develop them further. The Webinar presentations can be found here (Webinar introduction and Approach and Scenarios) and a recording of the Webinar here.
Study Site Trials
The SICS selected for trialling in this Study Site are described below:
General Treatment Category | Study Site Trials |
Soil-improving crops, Sowing management |
1. Early sowing of wheat (August vs September vs end of October) (2019)
|
Cover crops, | 2. Cover crops interseeded between maize (2020) |
Study Site poster 2018, Study Site poster 2019
SICS1 :- Early sowing in winter wheat |
Early sowing of wheat |
Read this fact sheet in French |
SICS2:- Interseeding covers crops in maize |
|
Read this fact sheet in French here |
Geographical Description
The Study Site is located in the Linon catchment area, in the north of the Ille-et-Vilaine county, in the eastern part of Brittany. It is around 304 km² in size with about 20,000 hectares of total cultivated area. The Linon river is 33 km long. The geology of the area is quite heterogeneous comprising of alternating brioverian schists, silt and granite subsoil.
The Linon catchment descends east to its confluence with the Rance river, where its altitude is about 10 meters. Its maximum altitude is about 175 meters, in the south and east part. The Linon catchment is subject to an oceanic climate, with an average of 750 mm rainfall per year.
Pedo-climatic zone
Lusitanian/ Atlantic Central, Cambisol
Cropping systems
The Linon catchment area has 413 farms and it is mainly a dairy area. There are 18 farms turned to organic production in the area (2017). FRAB and their local partner Agrobio35 are working on soils with more or less 15 farms in this area (organic and conventional).
Wheat, maize and grassland: the territory has mainly traditional dairy systems, grassland systems and maize-based systems. Grasslands are particularly important in the north-east and south-west parts of the area, whereas a central part is dominated by crops (maize and wheat).
Management of soil, water, nutrients and pests
There is no irrigation in this area. Management of soils and nutrients depends on the farms, whether they are in conventional or organic farming. GAB-FRAB network is trying to promote organic methods, as organic fertilisation, mechanical weeding, rotations.
Soil improving cropping system and techniques currently used
Biological pest management, green manure, organic fertilisers.
Problems that cause yield loss or increased costs
Compaction, weeds, loss of soil fertility.
Study Site Trials
The SICS selected for trialling in this Study Site are described below:
Country | General Treatment Category | Study Site Trials |
Spain | Cover crops, tillage, irrigation management |
1. Desertification, wind erosion and organic matter decline - Regulated vs Constant Deficit Irrigation and Minimum tillage in olive orchards; -Regulated vs Constant Deficit Irrigation and Minimum tillage plus pruning residues added in olive orchards; -Regulated vs Constant Deficit Irrigation and Minimum Tillage plus temporal cover crops (natural weeds and sowed) in olive orchards; -Regulated vs standard irrigation and non-tillage (herbicide weed control) in peach orchards; -Regulated vs standard irrigation and Non-tillage plus pruning residues added and temporal natural vegetation in peach orchards; -Regulated vs standard irrigation and Non-tillage plus pruning residues and temporal cover crops sowed in peach orchards |
Study Site poster 2018, Study Site poster Area A, 2019, Study Site poster Area B, 2019
Read this fact sheet in Spanish here | |||
Peach orchard (Area B) | |||
Tractor shredding pruning branches |
Key findings
|
Organic olive orchard (Area A) |
Read this fact sheet in Spanish here |
Key findings
|
Geographical description
The study site is located in the province of Almería (South East Spain,). The climate is arid (Mediterranean South). Rainfall is very scarce, always less than 300 mm per year.
Area A is located in the Sorbas-Tabernas Basin The climate is semiarid thermo-Mediterranean with an average annual temperature of 17.8ºC and an average annual rainfall of 235 mm, which is among the driest areas in Europe. The pronounced regional semiarid climate in the SE Iberian Peninsula is determined by its geographical location, in the rainfall shadow of the main Betic ranges and the proximity of northern Africa. In the autumn, rainfall is associated with incoming fronts from the Mediterranean Sea, which sometimes results in storms and torrential rains. Most rainfall events are low magnitude and low intensity. The average minimum temperature is 4.1°C in the coldest month and an average maximum of 34.7°C in the hottest month. Daily amplitudes average 13.7°C in summer. Potential evaporation is around 4 to 5 times higher than annual precipitation.
Area B is located in the Cabo de Gata Natural Park. There the climate is semiarid warm Mediterranean. The mean annual temperature oscillates around 18-19ºC, and frosts are sporadic, occurring only on isolated days. Mean annual rainfall is approximately 220 mm per year, with prolonged summer droughts, strong inter- (larger than 30%) and intra-annual variations and 9 to 12 months in which precipitation is not sufficient to compensate for potential evapotranspiration. Annual potential evapotranspiration is around 1400 mm.
Land uses include tree and annual crops cultivation, occasionally in protected structures (greenhouses and under mesh), pasturage (especially goat herds) and recreational activities (touristic uses, beaches in Cabo de Gata, and cinema in Tabernas area). Industry development is scarce and of composed by small enterprises. The exploitation of natural resources is regulated by the current zoning plan (PORN, 2008). Agriculture is one of the main activities, covering 26% of the park area. The abandonment of some agricultural areas and simultaneous intensification in certain others (i.e., water-fed agricultural systems and greenhouses) are the main causes of degradation in the park.
Almería map showing study sites and EC towers |
Stone fruit orchards sited in Agua Amarga at bloom. |